新一轮全球经济衰退可能提早到来

In business, as in life, good leaders hope for the best and planfor the worst. There’s a reason that experts refer to the regular expansion andcontraction of the economy as the business cycle.

商业中和生活中一样，优秀的领导抱最好的希望，做最坏的打算。专家们称经济周期是经济规律性的扩张和收缩是有原因。

Even producers of the most recession-proofproducts—toiletries, beer, funeral services—need to consider how rising andfalling consumer sentiment will affect their bottom line.

即使是最抗经济衰退的产品--洗漱用品、啤酒、殡葬服务--的供应商也需要考虑消费者情绪的起落对他们底线的影响。

Of course, timing the next downturn is easier said thandone. So as we head into a new year, we reached out to the Fast Company ImpactCouncil—a leadership group of 200 founders, executives, and creatives—to gaugehow some of the smartest and most innovative people in business are thinkingabout a possible recession.

当然，预测下一次衰退说起来容易做起来难。因此我们在步入新一年的时候，联系了《快速公司》影响委员会（Fast Company Impact Council），以便获悉商业中最聪明最富创新精神的一拨人是如何看待可能发生的经济衰退的。这个委员会是由200名创始人、执行官和创意官组成的领导集团。

About 4 in 10 respondents told us they expect the globaleconomy in 2020 to perform about the same. But remarkably, nearly 45% predictedthat the next 12 months would be worse for business. Only 16% said that theglobal economy would be better.

大约四成的调查对象告诉我们，他们预计全球经济在2020年与今年表现相同。但是令人惊讶的是，近45%的人预测，接下来的12个月对商业更加不利。只有16%的人说全球经济将转好。

Impact Council members were more like-minded about thetiming of the next downturn. While 21% predicted a recession would hit in 2020,the majority (54%) said it would likely arrive in 2021, after the nextpresidential election. About 15% responded that the next recession would comein 2022. Only 1 in 10 said the economy would continue to grow until 2023 orlater.

影响委员会的成员在预测下一次经济衰退方面看法更加一致。虽然有21%的人预测，2020年将遭到经济衰退的冲击，但大部分人（54%）认为经济衰退可能会在2021年出现，也就是在下一次总统选举后。约15%的人回应说，下一次经济衰退会在2022年到来。只有一成的人说，经济将持续增长到2023年及之后。

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